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2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round Preview & Predictions


The NHL playoffs were officially set on Sunday, and with the Washington Capitals and Chicago Blackhawks both earning the #1 seed in their conferences we at least know what cities the path for the Stanley Cup should go through. Being the #1 seeds, of course the Blackhawks (+450) and the Capitals (+550) are the two favorites to win the Stanley Cup, but to get to the Stanley Cup you have to start the playoffs off on the right... skate. Here is a preview of each series and my prediction for each series winner.

Eastern Conference

(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (WC1) New York Rangers

The Canadiens won all three regular season matchups against the Rangers this season, but just like any other sport, that doesn't matter now. The Canadiens have had an average season on offense. Max Pacioretty leads the team with 35 goals, which ranks 6th in the Eastern Conference, but only teammate Paul Byron has more than 19 goals. The Canadiens lack depth and even though the Rangers are a middle of the road defensive team, to win in the playoffs you have to get goals from more than just one player. The Rangers are the exact opposite than the Canadiens offensively. The Rangers have a very balanced attack with four players scoring more than 22 goals this year. I believe the offensively balanced attack of the Rangers will be enough to advance to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Rangers (+105) in 7 games

(2) Ottawa Senators vs. (3) Boston Bruins

The Senators are the lowest scoring team in the playoffs and are the only team to make the playoffs with a negative goal differential. That doesn't bode well for the Senators as they face the Bruins very solid defensive crew led by Zdeno Chara, youngster Brandon Carlo, and a very good goalie in Tuukka Rask. Brad Marchand is one of the best two-way players in the league and is having a career season with 39 goals for the Bruins and leads a two headed scoring duo with David Pastrnak's 34 goals. They will face Senators goalie Craig Anderson who finished second in the league in save percentage among goalies with at least 40 games played. This is a very important statistic as the Bruins shoot the second most shots per game in the league. Anderson has been playing all season with motivation as his wife has been battling cancer. Look for him to keep his team in contention with that continued motivation in the playoffs. The Senators swept the season series but the Bruins defense will be too much for the Senators and their offense will falter even with the return of Clarke MacArthur to their lineup.

Prediction: Bruins (-190) in 6 games (-190)

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (WC2) Toronto Maple Leafs

Since the turn of the century the Capitals have won their division a total of eight times. During those eight division titles they have lost in the first round five times. There isn't a team that has played worse in the playoffs than the Capitals since 2000. Luckily in the first round this year the Capitals' offense, who ranked 3rd in goals-for per game, will face the Maple Leafs defense, who finished in the bottom third of the league. The play of the Capitals 3rd-line by Lars Eller, Andre Burakovsky, and Brett Connolly is what makes their offense so deep. The Maple Leafs do however have a top-5 offense led by rookie sensation Auston Matthews. But the reigning Vezina trophy winning goalie, Braden Holtby, and arguably the best defensive corps in the league will be too much for the Maple Leafs young offense.

Prediction: Capitals (-360) win in 5 games

(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (3) Columbus Blue Jackets

The defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins led the league in goals and finished the year with five players scoring more than 21 goals, led by league leader Sidney Crosby's 44 goals. Trying to stop the Penguins will be the Blue Jackets under-rated defense. The Blue Jackets finished second only to Washington in goals-against average this year and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky led the league in goals-against average and save percentage. The Blue Jackets don't have a big name like Crosby but they do have Cam Atkinson who finished seventh in the league in goals this season. Defense will be the deciding factor in this series with both teams in the top-10 of shots per game. Unfortunately for the defending champions, after their loss of Kris Letang, their average defense will be their achilles heel in this series.

Prediction: Blue Jackets (+150) in 6 games

Western Conference

(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (WC2) Nashville Predators

The Blackhawks come into the playoffs as the top team in the west and their attack is top-heavier than it has been in recent years. Patrick Kane, Artemi Panaran, and Jonathan Toews will face a very solid Predator defense led by Roman Josi and P.K. Subban. Unfortunately for the Predators, their fate will depend on what goalie they get in Pekka Rinne. Rinne has had such an up and down season and he could be the deciding factor as to whether or not the Predators have a chance at winning this series. The Predators only scored two fewer goals than the Blackhawks this season but the Blackhawks had a goal differential of +10 over the Predators. During the three meetings Rinne had with the Blackhawks this season he only stopped 89% of their shots attempted. Blackhawks win this series easily.

Prediction: Blackhawks (-200) in 5 games

(2) Minnesota Wild vs. (3) St. Louis Blues

Only the Penguins scored more goals in the regular season than the Wild. The Wild had twelve players reach double digit scoring totals and they will face the Blues who come into the playoffs going 15-3-2 in their last 20 games. The Blues only had two players reach the 20-goal mark this season and will need more than just Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrik Berglund to step up if they want to beat the Wild's strong defensive corps in front of goalie Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk has been up and down this season. He had a great start to the season and then saw some struggles but finished strong. Dubnyk seems to be the deciding factor in this series.

Prediction: Wild (-160) in 7 games

(1) Anaheim Ducks vs. (WC1) Calgary Flames

The Ducks are coming into the playoffs as the hottest team in the league with an 8-0-2 record in their previous ten contests. The Ducks have one of the best goalies in the league in 23-year old John Gibson. He has a 2.22 goals-against average which ranked fourth in the league. Although his 24-16-9 record isn't very flashy, he was a victim of some bad luck for most of the season. The Ducks added Patrick Eaves at the trade deadline which gives three very potent forward lines. The Flames defense has a very strong top three in Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and T.J. Brodie. They then added to that defense with the late signing of Matt Barkowski. This is the third time these teams have met in the playoffs and the Ducks have won the previous two. Look for Gibson to build off of his 37 save shutout performance last week against the Blackhawks, and the Ducks' defense will help carry them past Calgary for a third time. This may be an easy win for the Ducks but rookie Matthew Tkachuk makes this a must see series. Tkachuk will try to find some real estate in the heads of the Ducks players to throw them off their game, right Drew Doughty?

Prediction: Ducks (-170) in 5 games

(2) Edmonton Oilers vs. (3) San Jose Sharks

The Oilers are an all around good team, top-10 offense and defense. The Sharks are only good on defense. Their offense is in the last half of the league in goals scored and shots for per game. The Oilers attack comes primarily from two lines, but those two lines are very impressive. The top unit features the leagues top point producer in Connor McDavid, along with Leon Draisaitl. The Sharks have a very strong defense led on the blue line by Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, but the Oilers speed will be a huge matchup problem for them. Injuries by Shark players Logan Couture and Joe Thornton will leave them at less than 100% for the playoffs and further lessen the chances of the Sharks winning this series. This is the first time the Oilers have made the playoffs since 2006 and they will continue this successful season with a quarterfinals appearance.

Prediction: Oilers (-135) in 5 games

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