UFC on FOX 24: Johnson vs. Reis Preview & Predictions
Last week I went 8-1 in my fight predictions and was 7-2 in my prediction of how the fight would be won. Looking to continue my hot streak this week we head to Kansas City, Missouri for UFC on FOX 24. This is the first event UFC has hosted in the state of Missouri where Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson looks to defend his Flyweight belt successfully for the 10th straight time against the #3 ranked Flyweight Wilson Reis.
Prelims:
Flyweights - Tim Elliott (13-7-10) vs. Louis Smolka (11-3)
Elliott was released from the UFC after he had lost three straight fights over three years from 2013-2015. He was able to get back into the UFC after he won The Ultimate Fighter 24. The champion of that season got a title fight against the headliner of this event in Johnson. Elliott lost by decision and has now lost four straight fights in the UFC. Smolka is also currently on a losing streak of two. Elliott always seems to be gassed in the later rounds due to his weight cut. Look for Smolka to take advantage of his stamina and win in the 3rd round.
Prediction: Smolka by third round submission
Lightweights - Bobby Green (23-7) vs. Rashid Magomedov (19-2)
Magomedov was riding a twelve fight win streak and a continuing rise in the rankings before he lost by decision to Beneil Dariush. Green is the perfect opponent for Magomedov to get back on track. Green has inconsistent boxing and Magomedov is a good striker and an even better counter-striker. As long as Magomedov can keep his distance and stay out of the clinch he should win this fight.
Prediction: Magomedov by unanimous decision
Bantamweights - Patrick Williams (8-4) vs. Tom Duquesnoy (14-1)
If you don't know who Duquesnoy is then you are in for a treat Saturday night. Grab you popcorn and put your phone away and make sure you are paying attention for this fight because it is going to end quick. The "Fire Kid" has been running through competition in BAMMA, a United Kingdom promotion. Only three of his 15 professional fights have made it to the third round. Williams hasn't fought since 2015 and has a chin that is perfect for Duquesnoy to destroy
Prediction: Duquesnoy by first round TKO
Heavyweights - Alexander Volkov (27-6) vs. Roy Nelson (22-13)
Both of these fighters harness extreme knockout power, a total of 33 knockout wins between the two. They also have two of the toughest chins in the business, only three knockout losses between them. So what does that mean for this fight? It means these two will hit each other very hard for three rounds and is my prediction for fight of the night. Volkov has a chance to make himself a heavyweight contender with this fight and Nelson has a chance to, well, just continue to be a mainstay in the division. Volkov is very light on his feet and will look to tag Nelson from a distance. Nelson will get his strikes in as Volkov does not move his head much, but "Big Country" doesn't have the same pop he used to in his hands to take full advantage of that.
Prediction: Volkov by unanimous decision
Main Card:
Featherweights - Jeremy Stephens (25-13) vs. Renato Moicano (10-0-1)
Stephens comes in losing four of his last six fights. His move to featherweight has made him a better striker while fighting smaller opponents. He likes to apply the pressure and has been the most successful when doing so. Moicano comes into this fight undefeated and this will be his third UFC fight. Stephens is by far his toughest opponent of his career to date. His specialty is his submission game where five of his ten wins have come via rear-naked choke. He uses his striking very well to set-up his take downs, but Stephens is a very capable wrestler and will keep this fight standing.
Prediction: Stephens by unanimous decision
Middleweights - Ronaldo Souza (24-4) vs. Robert Whittaker (17-4)
Souza is currently ranked the #3 middleweight and could make an argument for a title shot with a win against Whittaker. Souza has won ten of his last eleven fights, with his only loss being a controversial split decision to #1 middleweight contender Yoel Romero. This matchup is strength vs. weakness. Although the weaknesses aren't truly weaknesses. Souza will want to go to the ground but Whittaker has one of the best takedown defenses in the UFC at 93 percent, but he has also never faced a wrestler like Souza. On the other hand, Souza has never faced a boxer like Whittaker. Souza needs to stay inside Whittaker and pressure against the fence to prevent Whittaker from being able to box him. If he can do that he might be able to score some takedowns and get this fight to the ground where he wants it.
Prediction: Souza by unanimous decision
Women's Strawweights - Rose Namajunas (5-3) vs. Michelle Waterson (14-4)
After losing to Carla Esparza at The Ultimate Fighter Finale for the strawweight championship, Namajunas has won three straight fights in very impressive fashion before losing a split decision to Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Every fight, Namajunas has gotten better and better and this fight will be no different. Coming off a loss to a great fighter and now facing another good fighter, this will be a good co-main event. Waterson has a superb kicking game that does not bode well for the boxing Namajunas. Both women are good on the ground but with very different styles. Waterson is a risk taker, she will do anything and everything to get an arm or leg even if that means giving up position, where Namajunas is very smooth on the ground and always looks calm. This fight might challenge the Nelson/Volkov fight for fight of the night honors.
Prediction: Namajunas by unanimous decision
Flyweight Championship - (c) Demetrious Johnson 25-2-1) vs. Wilson Reis (22-6)
Johnson comes into this fight the heavy favorite as he does every other fight. Johnson has defended his belt a total of nine times in the UFC and is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC. Dana White has said that he is putting Johnson on some free fights because Johnson isn't getting the recognition that he deserves. But to me that also says the UFC doesn't feel as if Johnson can headline a PPV. Either way Johnson is a very impressive fighter. He has not lost a fight since 2011 and is the only fighter to hold the flyweight belt since its inception in 2012. He is one of the smartest fighters and adapts to the strengths of his opponents. Elliott showed a brief glimpse of possibly how to beat Johnson. Early on he pressured Johnson and had successful rounds, but Elliott didn't have the stamina to continue that strategy. Unfortunately for Reis, he doesn't have the strategy to do that. Reis has never been a pressure fighter, and that doesn't work well against Johnson, because in return he will pressure you. Reis has to take Johnson to the ground and keep the fight there, something Johnson is very susceptible to. But Johnson is a great scrambler and gets himself out of the few sticky situations he has found himself in. Look for Reis to win the first two rounds and get twitter going crazy and then Johnson prevails in the championship rounds.
Prediction: Johnson by fourth round TKO
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